dirk

 

The Thunder again didn’t play to their potential, and after two games some credit has to go to Dallas for ensuring that. Credit will not be given to Dallas for a win however as they failed to capitalise on strong performances (especially from Dirk) and a solid team effort.

Russell Westbrook scored 29 points and controlled entire portions of the game, allowing the Thunder to sidestep what was a mostly forgettable outing by regular season scoring leader Kevin Durant. Durant shot a miserable 5-17 and has to hope his shot makes the trip to Dallas in two days time for Game 3.

Three key points from Game 2:

  1. Dirk getting physical with the bigger front line of the Oklahoma City Thunder. After a non-call following a rake across the face, Nowitzki was jawing with the opposing bigs and throwing his weight around. It was a great show of moxie from a player often criticized for his lack of fire.
  2. Durant picking up Jason Terry on defense and helping limit JET’s scoring opportunities. This look helps OKC as it doesn’t provide a mismatch on Dallas’ favourite move, a high Dirk/JET P&R which usually results in a switch with a smaller defender on Dirk. Durant on Terry negates that move, so it’s over to Rick Carlisle to figure out the next chess maneuver.
  3. After being the hero in Game 1, Serge Ibaka was a no show in Game 2. Four rebounds and one block is not the kind of output the Thunder need from Serge Jonas Ibaka Ngobila. He will need to pick up his game, as will Kevin Durant, as the Dallas crowd will be fired up to get their team back in this winnable series.

Things to keep an eye in for Game 3:

  • Will Dirk continue to play with a chip on his shoulder after getting into it with both Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. Dirk played his best ball of the young postseason directly after getting riled up by the OKC front court. If he takes that mindset into Game 3 and convinces someone else from Dallas to follow him, the result may turn out differently.
  • Who will step up to be Robin to Dirk’s Batman? Jason Terry was mostly invisible, Jason Kidd probably doesn’t have it left in him anymore and Delonte West showed flashes in Game 2, but ultimately failed to strike any real fear into the OKC defense.

 

 

 

Durant hits the game-winner!

It took a Kevin Durant jumper with 1.5 seconds remaining for OKC to prevail, but game one showed everything both sides had to give, with all the big names doing what they do best. Durant was the hero late, but he didn’t shoot well all game and was made to work hard for his 25 points by Shawn Marion and Vince Carter. Russell Westbrook was aggressive, perhaps a little too much so, with five turnovers versus only five assists. It was Serge Ibaka who dictated much of what Dallas were able to do as he swarmed all over the court, getting in passing lanes for deflections, blocking five shots and changing many more and being a general menace. It’s Ibaka and not Durant that Rick Carlisle will have to game plan for in game 2 and beyond.

Dallas will not sleep well as they know they have a slim margin for victory in this series and they let game one get away from them. They were in control of the game for the first 45 minutes until the Thunder, behind Ibaka, were able to use their young legs to out hustle the Mavericks. The film session will be a difficult one for the Mavs as they won’t find a lot of things they did wrong, and likely can’t play much better against the Thunder. No so for Oklahoma City who can make a few changes to significantly improve (mostly reducing Derek Fishers 16 minutes a game to somewhere around zero).

Game two is in Oklahoma City again, and it’s hard to see them playing this well again. This was their opportunity to influence the series positively, but that chance appears to have gone begging and it’s looking like a sweep.

 

 

The Dallas Mavericks won their first NBA Championship in franchise history yesterday with a 105-95 win in Miami. To paraphrase the majority of media outlets covering the NBA Finals, the Dallas Mavericks “took their talents to South Beach” in celebratory fashion. As the final game of the season wound down the images of surprise, shock, happiness and sadness began to emerge not only for the Dallas victory but also for Miami’s shocking loss. From the moment Dwyane Wade paused in front of the Dallas bench to longingly celebrate a crunch time three in Game 2, the Mavericks turned on a simply dominating performance to win this series. Let’s take a closer look at some of the more talked about figures from the 2011 NBA Finals.


Dirk Nowitzki

One word: Amazing. Dirk Nowitzki exorcised the demons of 2006 in the most emphatic way, casting aside any lingering opinions of him being soft, lacking leadership or perhaps being non-committal to winning. The fact he was facing Miami again only made for good media romance as it didn’t matter to Dirk who the opponent was. His persistence, drive and will to win will leave his name etched in history as one of the greats of the game. Prior to this Finals series it was simply his amazing skill-set at seven-feet that propelled him into high esteem, not to mention his MVP trophy that in some circles was considered unjust to say the least.

Through injury, sickness and a poorly-timed shooting slump, Dirk continually picked himself up and kept charging toward the finish line. He had an excellent supporting cast that included a multitude of players that all brought “something” to the table on any given night. That is more than can be said for some other notable names in the Finals series but we’ll get to that a little later. 

No matter which team you follow, (perhaps sans Miami) it is a feel-good story to see Nowitzki win a Championship. The seven-foot German who so awkwardly graces the hardwood has finally landed the Championship hardware that certifies his entire career and moves him into legend status as a winner, and a gracious, humble champion. The best kind.

Jason Kidd

If you had to consider one Basketball story from these Finals that could unseat Dirk’s triumph on the “romance scale”, it would have to be the story of Jason Kidd. This 10-time NBA All-Star and eventual Hall-of-Famer finally gets to call a Championship ring his own and he was able to come back to the team who originally drafted him in 1994 to do it. Although the road has not always been smooth off the court for Jason, on purely a Basketball level the journey is an amazing one. Having made two previous trips to the NBA Finals in 2002 and 2003 with a combined win-loss record of 2-8, Kidd could be understood not taking anything for granted in this year’s finale.

With the Miami Heat leading 2-1 after three close games, a feeling of “here we go again” may have crossed his mind. If this was the case, Kidd certainly didn’t show it as he continued to make big shots and more importantly find others for big shots all through the series. His NBA Finals averages of 7.7 points, 6.3 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game just go to show that age is not a factor if you have the heart of a champion. A heart that is certified now with a Championship.

Dwyane Wade

If anyone dares question Dwyane Wade’s heart, they are on the verge of lunacy. Wade played his tail off for the first five games of the Finals series, creating the possible out of impossible circumstances. Often called upon to perform when others seemed disinterested (LeBron, you’re up next) Wade led the team for hustle and determination by a country mile. The only other players for Miami that could say they worked even half as hard as Wade did in this series were Chris Bosh and Mario Chalmers. (Honorable mention to Udonis Haslem)

It’s safe to say that even the ever-energetic Dwyane Wade ran out of gas in Game 6. This is in no way intended to be an insult to Wade, in fact quite the opposite. What happened to him could of happened to anyone in his position, left with such an under-performing supporting cast. His will and determination didn’t diminish until very late in the final game and his disappointment was evident. Regardless, he played one hell of a series and with a couple of lucky bounces going his way could have led his Heat to a 4-0 sweep of the Mavericks, collecting the Finals MVP along the way. There’s a lot to think about for the Heat over the next six months, however Wade’s conscience will be clear with regards to his effort.

LeBron James

Where to start on this subject? It’s been covered more than the Royal Wedding and “The Decision” combined and one has to feel sad about where this has got to. As it stands now, LeBron James cannot win. He is being widely criticized when defeated and will be denied any form of legend status if/when he claims his own Championship jewelry. The scrutiny James is under is unprecedented but some would say self-created. From his over-dramatized start to the misunderstood “back to the real world” finish to this NBA season, LeBron has simply fueled the critics collective fire beyond repair.

Just drink in the fact that the arguably the best raw Basketball talent in the world, may never be genuinely liked or applauded. It’s got to that crazy stage.

These facts are clear however when talking about LeBron James. The man is the most physically gifted Basketballer we have seen since Wilt Chamberlain, he captivates and polarizes the NBA community unlike any other before him and most notably is nothing remotely like Michael Jordan in any way when it comes to Basketball. LeBron hid from the big moments, moved the ball out of his hands like a hot potato during crunch time and showed almost no signs of the “eff you” attitude that got MJ to the heights he reached.

Those attributes just mentioned have the potential to make him a better teammate than Jordan, a more likeable “team-oriented” kinda guy than Jordan and a more successful leader, however none of these things have come close to being achieved. It seems while as fans and analysts we all want to see greatness from LeBron, the NBA community grows tired of the self-promotion, the arrogance and the talk of greatness when nothing of “championship calibre” has been achieved.

All throughout this Finals series we were waiting for LeBron to “flick the switch”, we were waiting for his eyes to glaze over and for him to take to the Mavericks like he did the Pistons in 2007. But there was no drive, there was no “wrecking ball” activity and there was seemingly no desire to step up in the big moment. His mentality was summed up when he drove the lane, got past Marion and then lightly handed the ball off under the basket to Juwan “Older than Yoda” Howard. On any other stage, that drive finished with a thunderous tomahawk dunk. Not during Game 6 however as there just wasn’t a plan followed by execution.

It’s the same reason James didn’t enter the Dunk Contest, he cannot seem to plan and implement anything. He is so good that he makes it all up as he goes and still reaches these dizzying heights. LeBron will get his Championship one day but he will need to define in his mind what he is to Basketball. Is he a go-getter or a front-runner? Only he can answer that.

Shawn Marion

The man affectionately known as “The Matrix” re-invigorated his reputation during this series. His averages of 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, a block and a steal per game provided much needed energy to Dallas’ cause. Marion played great defense, cutting off LeBron’s passage to the lane and contested what seemed like every rebound en route to his long awaited Championship glory. We all know his jump shot is ugly as hell but Marion didn’t need it as he made the jump hook his own private security blanket, and Miami’s nightmare.

Tyson Chandler

This is all I need to say on Chandler: Rebounds, toughness, hustle, rebounds, intensity, rebounds and rebounds. That is all.

Jason Terry / DeShawn Stevenson

Terry and Stevenson while not necessarily having the right considering their CVs, led the Mavericks in “nut punching the bully” during these Finals. Jason Terry ran his mouth and backed it up with huge shots at critical times throughout. Stevenson continued to find himself in fortunate situations and did the job required of him while taking verbal shots at Wade and James along the way. It’s been proven over a long time that role player vs. superstar rivalries generally turn out poorly for the former. Just ask Gerald Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel and Raja Bell how it turned out for them. The difference here was not so much the calibre of the role player so much as the passiveness of the superstar. All in all a sensational series for these two Mavericks though who managed to balance the drama with actually putting the ball in the hoop, arrogance and all.

Erik Spoelstra / Rick Carlisle

Spoelstra was either out-coached or out-gunned in this series, depending on your point-of-view or which media outlet you’re reading. While Carlisle got the victory and therefore the spoils, it is clear that Spoelstra’s troops under-performed in a big way. The easy and foolish route is to blame “Junior Riley” and speculate on his future, however you would be silly to do this. Erik Spoelstra made adjustments throughout this series and pleaded with his team to stay mentally strong. He didn’t waver from his game plan that nearly landed Miami a 3-0 lead, he called timeouts when required and drew up plays for his team to succeed. If he had five Dwyane Wade’s he would have won 4-0 and hit the big time. Oh, to dream for Miami.

Rick Carlisle put a gag order on his outspoken owner, empowered even the Brian Cardinal’s of the world to contribute mightily and hand-picked an ego-less team that when pushed had the will and determination to succeed together. He rode his lone superstar to greatness while making no excuses, pulling no punches and not once buying into anything other than his game plan and his players collective development. Which coach would you rather be? Both driven, both capable, one Champion. For now.

Conclusion

It’s nice to see that teams still can’t buy a Championship and it’s nice to see a few gritty competitors in Nowitzki, Kidd and Marion get a Championship ring at last. It’s also intriguing to see where Miami goes from here, how they develop and more importantly how they respond to the adversity. It will be captivating to see what strategies the other 28 teams employ, thinking for a fleeting moment that they can once again stop the Miami juggernaut. And finally, it will be captivating if/when LeBron James develops a go-to move that he will unleash on the League next season en route to the Championship he believes the “man upstairs” has lined up for him.

All in all, bring on next season!

Thanks for reading.

You can follow Paul Henderson on Twitter! @HD_Paul

Catch all Hoop Diary updates on Facebook here.

 

 

The Miami Heat gave away home court advantage in every sense of the word today as they blew a 15 point lead with seven minutes remaining in Game Two of the NBA Finals. Dallas walked away with a 95-93 victory and now have the luxury of three straight home games to look forward to. Early in the second half the Miami PA was playing Bachman-Turner Overdrive’s “Taking Care of Business”, by the end of the game that could be seen as the Mavericks’ theme song, not the Heat’s.


At the midway point of the third quarter the Mavericks looked shaky at best, with Coach Rick Carlisle picking up a technical and the Heat ball movement murdering the Dallas defense. Fortunes were definitely on Miami’s side as LeBron got away with elbows, Jason Kidd was turning the ball over and Dirk was on the bench, replaced with Brian Cardinal.

Ouch.

Even Mike Bibby was hitting three’s. Time out Dallas, down eight with just a touch under four minutes remaining in the third.

The third period ended with a Dallas mini-run however and while surviving a thunderous driving dunk by LeBron James, the Mavs trailed by only four at the final break. Amazing really as watching the game without the score on screen could have left you thinking the Heat were home by 20-plus.

The first five minutes of the final term really couldn’t have been executed much better for the Heat as they defended well, contested shots, rebounded amazingly and scored in transition. There was nothing to be upset about for Miami as Dallas appeared to be on the canvas, down 15 with seven minutes remaining. The “Hollywood Heat” were rolling, James and Wade were animated and the crowd was loving it.

With six minutes remaining Jason Terry made a 13 foot baseline jumper to move the Mavericks to a horrible 2-12 from the field for the period. At this point, Miami still leading comfortably seemed to fall in love with the three-ball momentarily and Coach Erik Spoelstra called for time. A small glitch in concentration and watching live one could be forgiven for thinking the timeout was premature. It was still painfully obvious that the Heat were going up 2-0 in the series, and comfortably.

Having had maximum success with transition baskets triggered by hustle defense, Miami simply switched off at a critical time. Even the half court offense went cold as the Heat reverted to Cleveland Cavalier circa-2009 Basketball, clearing out to allow James to attempt and miss long fade-away jumpers.

From 2:45 remaining until the clock showed only 0:57 the Mavericks not only drew within two on a Nowitzki jump shot but tied the game after yet another pedestrian offensive set by the Heat. Miami continued to walk the ball up the court, looking seemingly un-phased by the run Dallas was on. Miami’s last two possessions produced two long, well defended desperation three-point attempts from James. The crowd was stunned as the Mavericks were on a stunning 17-2 run.

What happened next was unbelievable as Miami again went to the arc and again came up short on a rushed bomb attempt from Dwyane Wade. Dallas utilised great ball movement on the following possession and managed to find their best shooter Dirk Nowitzki open for three…

Yes, wide open for three.

Swish“.

Time Out Miami, down by three. A 20-2 run for Dallas in the fourth quarter. Simply amazing.

And as if the game couldn’t get crazier, Jason Terry went completely AWOL on the next defensive play, leaving Mario Chalmers more open than a “7-11″ to tie the game from the arc.

The final possession for Dallas was extremely well executed as Jason Kidd ran the ball down to eight seconds, handed off to Dirk and watched in awe as Nowitzki drove Chris Bosh all the way to the hoop for a lefty lay-up with only 3.6 seconds remaining to give his Mavericks the lead.

Dwyane Wade missed a desperation half court heave as the buzzer sounded as the Dallas Mavericks completed one of the great comebacks in NBA Finals history taking the game 95-93. Wade flopped to the floor on the long-range attempt and could be seen moments later on his back with hand on eye, seemingly asking the referee for his attention. Part of me wondered if Wade’s look was more of shock and disbelief than a request for a foul call. Either way, this one was in the books and the series was tied at 1-1 heading to Texas.

Dallas fans will be rejoicing now as this has officially become a series. As previously discussed, an 0-2 hole would have been almost impossible to climb out of. Some interesting decisions by the Heat late in the game really cost them as it seemed LeBron James and Dwyane Wade wanted to keep attempting a knockout punch that never came.

If Dallas is to wrestle the momentum from Miami in this series now, they must capitalize immediately and to do so will certainly require more stellar play from Shawn Marion. “The Matrix” made several key plays for Dallas throughout the fourth quarter, picking up points and rebounds where he simply wanted it more than the other nine players on court. Dirk will also need to keep “being Dirk” as his play in this game announced him to the series. Nowitzki had his struggles in Game One and this performance might just re-ignite the confidence level.

For Miami the remedy is simple…

Finish the damn game.

We are all aware of how talented the Heat are and today’s result wasn’t caused by a lack of role player performance. This ball was dropped by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade who unfortunately for Heat fans were perhaps guilty of listening to the Miami PA’s jukebox a little too early.

I have no doubt they won’t make that same mistake twice, which could be very bad news for Dallas.

Game Three is played on Monday Melbourne time… Time for someone to take care of business.


Thanks for reading.

You can follow Paul Henderson on Twitter! @HD_Paul

Catch all Hoop Diary updates on Facebook here.

 

 

The Miami Heat took Game One of the NBA Finals today 92-84 at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami. The scoreline ended up flattering the Mavericks somewhat with a made basket inside the final few seconds. This puts Dallas in a must-win situation for Game Two regardless of the upcoming three home games via the 2-3-2 format. There were a few danger signs for the Mavericks in this game today and the coaching staff will be feverishly defining strategy for Game Two which will be played in Miami on Friday, Melbourne time. For Miami it was business as usual as now, after 97 games they are only three wins away from their goal of an NBA Championship.


The usual suspects littered the box score for the Heat with the “Big 3″ accounting for the following share of Miami’s totals: 

  • Points: 70.6%
  • Rebounds: 60.8%
  • Assists: 70%
  • Field Goal Attempts: 66.2%
  • Field Goals Made: 77.4%

Put simply, these guys were everywhere for Miami and while stopping all of them is impossible, the task now is surely just stopping one of them. Dirk Nowitzki had a solid game and carried his team admirably with help from Shawn Marion. On a night when both teams shot a shade under 39% from the field, the combo of Nowitzki/Marion bucked the trend and combined for 43 points (at 43% from the field), 18 rebounds, six assists, a block and a steal. The problem for Dallas was their second unit that influenced the game about as much as Mark Jackson’s commentary intellect. For those playing at home, that equals zero.

Peja Stojakovic, Jason Terry, Brendan Haywood and JJ Barea combined for just 17 points on a horrid 4-22 (18%) from the field. Justin Bieber shot just above that clip (3-11) in the All-Star Celebrity Game in February.

Yes, I mentioned Bieber which is bad but the Mavericks bench were worse.

(Note: My spell checker identifies “Bieber” as a problem which is wonderful. However it’s suggested fix is “Lieberman” which is insulting to the game’s female version of Jerry West.)

In my opinion Miami’s win today doesn’t guarantee them anything but it does go a long way towards capturing the flag that is the Larry O’Brien trophy. Historically, teams who take Game One of a best-of-seven series generally advance/win at a clip just above 70%.

With all of this considered the Dallas Mavericks have one simple goal in mind right now, and that is to win Game Two. The only way this is remotely possible is through improved bench play and the disabling of one of the “Big 3″. Miami didn’t do a terribly good job of containing or defending the perimeter, so Dallas will be afforded the opportunity to shoot a much better percentage and try to force the scoreboard into triple figures.

Defensively there can be no more cheap, non-physical fouls. It still amazes me that opponents don’t simply tackle James once he gets past his man and into the lane. Both Wade and James can finish with significant contact, let alone a cheap bump or slap. Turning those three-point plays into two’s and maintaining a 45-50% field goal percentage will go a long way to winning Game Two for the Mavericks.

This is far easier said than done however as this Miami team is playing significantly better Basketball than Portland, Los Angeles or Oklahoma City. The Heat have higher level threats at the most dangerous positions of two, three and four and rely much less on their bench. While Durant and Westbrook could kill Dallas from the perimeter, there was no inside presence for the Thunder. Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum tried to one-two their way through the Mavericks defense sans Gasol while the Laker bench disappeared. While Portland were multi-skilled, they lacked role definition and about $30m of talent. 

If Dallas lose Game Two in Miami on Friday, this series feels as though it will be over in five games at a maximum. If Dallas gets the series split however, I see this potentially going seven games. Dallas fans better hope Dirk’s finger ligament damage isn’t as bad as it sounds.

Buckle up for a Finals classic or an LBJ “coming out” party depending on the Game Two result.

For some, those two are one and the same.

Thanks for reading.

You can follow Paul Henderson on Twitter! @HD_Paul

Catch all Hoop Diary updates on Facebook here.

 

 

The Miami Heat vs. the Dallas Mavericks. At face value it’s easy to think this is a rematch of the 2006 Finals, but in a way this is much more like the 2007 Finals, where an old and wily Western team gutted themselves to the Finals to play against a defensive squad featuring LeBron James.

Paul Henderson lent his considerable knowledge to breaking down the upcoming series, but was he correct and who will ultimately win? Read on to see where the smart money is.


The NBA Finals are about one thing and one thing only – matchups. It doesn’t matter how well a team played against another in the regular season, or past results from previous seasons. Don’t believe me? Let’s examine these items in some further detail then.

Head to Head Results

Head to head results are a popular and easy way to compare the fortunes of two teams whenever they meet in the Playoffs. Paul spent hundreds of eloquent words and included some statistical analysis that showed why Dallas might be in some trouble. Of course he then went on to pick Dallas to win, so I’m not 100% sure what his game is. Anyway, I promised you a discussion on head to head results, so let’s get to it.

Head to head results during the regular season is an overly simplistic comparison with several problems. One, teams often don’t go full-strength during the regular season or don’t show their full bag of tricks, and two, what happened in January is often not representative of a team come June. Miami are 0-2 this year versus the Mavericks, but this is rather misleading. Miami where 1-3 against Boston and we saw that went. Miami were also 0-3 against Chicago, and that didn’t end so well for the Windy City boys.

Long story short, Miami are a different club in the last month, and not because of some magical switch they flipped, but mostly because their chemistry works much better when the stakes are highest. It’s easier to step aside in May if a teammate has a hot hand, than it is in November when you are trying to figure out who is the alpha dog. It doesn’t help that they replaced Eddie House and Zydrunas Ilgauskas as their fourth and fifth players in November with Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem in May. That’s a huge step up.

Past Results

How many games have the Mavs lost to Miami since the 2006 Finals? None. They are 10-0 since the Heat were carried to the Championship on Wades shoulders. How does this matter this June? It doesn’t. Moving on.

Matchups Matter

Now we get to the heart of the matter; the real crux of the issue that is going to define who hoists the Larry O’Brien trophy. Matchups are key and besides what Tiim MacMahon would have you believe, they all favour Miami. Sure, the starting lineups go to Dallas as Bibby is no Jason Kidd and Joel Anthony is not the threat on offense that Tyson Chandler can occasionally be. This hides the real truth though, the players who start for Miami are not the guys who get the most minutes or make the most impact.

The Mavericks have been an amazing team offensively, but this is likely to cease in the NBA Finals, but not for the reason that first leaps to mind. Yes, the Heat have been a dominant defensive force, but the Mavericks will struggle to score because they will be forced to match up with the Heat at the defensive end. There will be little to no opportunity for Rick Carlisle to play a three guard front of Kidd, Terry and Berea. Nor will we see Peja Stojakovic getting much run (or waddle as he does nowadays), as he will be such a liability against a player like LeBron. As well as Peja was able to do, much to almost everyone’s surprise, against Durant in the previous round, LeBron is a different beast requiring much more than just length, but also mobility and strength. Those two attributes are long gone from Peja’s arsenal.

The challenge facing Rick Carlisle is how to squeeze offense out of a unit that will be forced to rely on DeShawn Stevenson, Shawn Marion and Corey Brewer for long (and key) periods of the game. Jason Kidd has been amazing in these Playoffs, perhaps as influential as he was on his teammates as back in his New Jersey days, if not as impactful on the game overall, but he will need to score consistently to provide a punch for Dallas to have any shot.

What’s that you say? Dallas has a red-hot Dirk Nowitzki, and he’s twice the player Chris Bosh is. Well, he’d need to be a lot more than twice the player Bosh is, and even then it likely wouldn’t be a determining factor, since Dirk will need to score 50+ per game to give Dallas a punchers chance.

Predictions

So with that done, it’s time to talk turkey; who will win, not only Game One, but the entire series. I have to say sorry to fans of Dallas and all those who have hopped on board the Miami Hatred Express because this one is gonna be a sweep. It won’t be pretty, but it will be quick. With Dallas forced to bench its most effective offensive players, the gaudy point totals are done, and so are its hopes at winning a Championship.

 

 

Spirits are high right now in the “Big D” as the Dallas Mavericks have secured their second NBA Finals appearance in five years. Dallas finished off the young and improving Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Five with a 100-96 victory at American Airlines Arena on Thursday. The 4-1 series win sets up an NBA Finals re-match with the Mavericks’ 2006 opponent the Miami Heat. Dirk Nowitzki was amazing in this series and will look to continue his stellar form throughout the Finals in much the same fashion. Let’s take a closer look at the “Dirk Nowitzki Show”.


In recent years not only Dirk but the Mavericks in general have been labelled “soft” by the collective NBA community. Being guilty of MVP fade outs, a distinct lack of defense and some early Playoff exits, the Mavs have allowed the NBA public to doubt whether they have what it takes to win it all. This Playoff run certainly has a different feel however as contributions keep on coming from all areas of their roster. If it’s not Dirk’s amazing play carrying the Mavericks it’s Jason Kidd getting it done. If Kidd disappears at any stage the contributions of guys like Marion, Barea or Terry seem to come at the most prolific times. Even the aging sharp-shooter Peja Stojakovic is finding time to shine as these Dallas Mavericks seem to be on a mission.

Let’s focus on Dirk though and drink in his statistical wizardry throughout the recently concluded Thunder series.
Dirk Nowitzki
#41
32.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 55.7% FG, 96.7% FT in 40.6 MPG.
To say Dirk has been amazing probably doesn’t quite cut it as it’s not just what he is doing so much as when he does it. Nowitzki has made a myriad of tough shots at crucial times during these Playoffs and doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon. Before the Oklahoma series began it was common opinion that the Thunder big man rotation of Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Kendrick Perkins could provide the necessary resistance to contain Nowitzki. This was clearly not the case and poses the question of who for Miami can stop this guy?
Taking a look at NBA.com’s Statscube one can notice two glaring shortfalls on offense for Nowitzki vs. the Miami Heat during the regular season. While rarely getting inside the lane during those two games, Dirk certainly shot well below his season average from downtown connecting on only one of nine attempts. Miami’s swarming defense and close out ability has held plenty of players below their normal output throughout the season and Playoffs.
The area of the floor that Nowitzki has attacked the most throughout this Playoff run is the mid-range. Take a look at this rather glaring shot chart from Dirk’s two games against Miami this season.
It’s clear that over this admittedly small sample size, Miami’s defense bothers Dirk when it comes to mid-range conversion. The bread and butter for Nowitzki so far in the Playoffs may be harder to come by than at any time in the past 13 games. Miami’s defense will present Dirk with a variety of defenders that can play long, physical or quick and Mavericks Head Coach Rick Carlisle will have his hands full. It’s not unreasonable to expect Miami to throw Bosh, Anthony, LeBron or even Juwan Howard at Dirk for at least small amounts of time. Dallas will need the big German to continue with his diverse array of offensive moves and maintain his hot streak to be successful.
This series is very hard to predict and it’s likely that whoever wins Game One, will go on to win the Championship for mine. One thing is for certain, if Dallas is going to win their first, then that man Dirk Nowitzki is going to have to maintain his current form and lead his team to the promised land.
Can he and his Mavericks beat the Heat? We’ll know in about six games time.
Thanks for reading.
You can follow Paul Henderson on Twitter! @HD_Paul
Catch all Hoop Diary updates on Facebook here.
 

 

Knowing Brett and Ryan will likely cover the Chicago vs. Miami series I turn my attention to the upcoming Dallas vs. Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals match-up. An unlikely meeting in some respects but now that they’re both here, they certainly deserve it. Oklahoma City has an 8-4 post-season record while Dallas are 8-2 and have enjoyed a nice long rest after sweeping/destroying the Lakers in the Conference Semis. With thanks to NBA.com’s Statscube, let’s take a look at the two teams and see if we can’t unlock some hidden gems.


First thing’s first as the Dallas Mavericks won two of the three meetings this season against Oklahoma City. What’s interesting is that both wins were on Oklahoma’s home floor. It definitely puts the third meeting into perspective as a clean sweep with two road wins would have afforded the Mavericks a significant psychological advantage. Not to be though as neither team was able to protect their home court during the regular season. (Who says it’s meaningless??)

Predictably the Dallas Mavericks excelled from the arc connecting on 44% of their attempts. Strangely enough the Thunder only attempted four shots from downtown in the entire three games played, connecting on one. I sense there will be more emphasis on the outside shot with OKC likely to eclipse that number in the first quarter of Game One. In fact, Russell Westbrook alone will probably eclipse that number in the first quarter. As for the inside game, the Thunder really struggled. It’s only right to mention that the three contests were played between November 24th and December 6th 2010 though so the Kendrick Perkins Experience was yet to materialize and that is a big factor.

When it comes to rebounding Dallas increased their productivity against OKC by close to 12% however I point again to the time-frame of the games. Needless to say that the Ibaka/Perkins vs. Chandler/Haywood match-up will be key.

One area of concern for Oklahoma was their inability to convert from inside the lane. Barring the restricted area, (in other words dunks and lay-ups) the Thunder shot a horrible 27%. Some would argue that their 63-97 from the restricted area for 65% makes up for that but I don’t think this Mavericks team will be giving away anything easy. This is where the Thunder will rely heavily on that three-point stroke to open up the floor. Much like the struggles of the Orlando Magic, I sense OKC will be in a world of pain if guys like James Harden go missing in this series.

This leaves me predicting a high scoring affair with both teams, (if on their game) able to score from all over the floor. The only asterisk on this prediction is the Thunder’s ability to shoot well from outside.

Finally a look at the coaches and it seems Michael J Fox (Scott Brooks) vs. Jim Carrey (Rick Carlisle) is really happening. I like both of these guys and it will be tough to see one of them fall short. My gut tells me that Carlisle has the upper hand here and also has the deeper team. Looks like Marty McFly may need to wait for a sequel to claim a berth in the NBA Finals.

If you’ve been following our podcasts you’ll know that my predictions have been just awful. So in the spirit of making tax-free money, (no Sports Almanac I can assure you!) put the house on Oklahoma City as I think the Mavericks will take this series in six games.

Thanks for reading!

You can follow Paul Henderson on Twitter @HD_Paul or Hoop Diary @hoopdiary.

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